The reality for Liverpool is revealed as the numbers for Champions League qualification fall into place.

Liverpool’s season could ultimately be decided in Europe rather than domestically, as the latest Champions League standings clarify exactly what’s required. According to Liverpoolfc.com, Arne Slot’s team needs just one point from their remaining two group-stage matches to secure a spot in the knockout play-off round.
Currently, Liverpool sit ninth in the table with 12 points after six games, level with Inter Milan and Real Madrid, missing out on the top eight only on goal difference. With league form inconsistent, the Champions League increasingly represents the stage to replicate last season’s title-winning standards.
Champions League route ahead of Marseille and Qarabag
The next fixtures see Liverpool travel to Marseille on Wednesday, then host Qarabag a week later. Securing a single point from these matches ensures a finish between ninth and 24th, which would lead to a two-legged play-off in February.
However, there’s more to the table than that. Liverpool remain firmly in contention for a top-eight finish, which would allow them to skip the extra play-off round and advance directly to the last 16. This context reinforces Jamie Carragher’s recent comments on Slot’s European priorities, noting that the coach sees continental success as the logical next step after winning the Premier League in his debut season. Carragher also highlighted how Slot admires teams that can dominate at Champions League level, a philosophy reflected in summer signings Florian Wirtz and Jeremie Frimpong.
This approach will be tested against a Marseille side sitting 16th with nine points.
Liverpool still control their European destiny
The numbers show how fine the margins are. One victory could propel Liverpool into the top eight, while dropped points could push them toward the congested play-off route. Opta’s data-led model from two months ago predicted Liverpool would finish eighth with roughly 15.4 points—a forecast that now looks remarkably on target. The analysis also projected all six Premier League teams would finish inside the top 12, underscoring the competitiveness of the group stage.
In short, progression remains in Liverpool’s hands, and the path forward is now mathematically clear.