Carlo Ancelotti disagrees with Pep Guardiola’s assessment of Manchester City’s chances against Real Madrid. While Guardiola may be confident in his team’s ability, Ancelotti sees things differently, likely believing that Madrid has the quality and experience to challenge City effectively.

Carlo Ancelotti has dismissed Pep Guardiola’s claim that Manchester City have only a “one percent” chance of overturning Real Madrid in the Champions League play-offs.

Madrid hold a 3-2 lead heading into Wednesday’s second leg, thanks to Jude Bellingham’s late winner at the Etihad. City now face the tough challenge of winning at the Bernabéu—a feat they have only managed once in six visits. That victory came in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic halted football.

City enter the match after a dominant 4-0 win over Newcastle, while Madrid dropped points against Osasuna, surrendering their La Liga lead to Barcelona. Ancelotti believes City’s recent form means they are far from out of the tie.

“He doesn’t really believe that,” Ancelotti said, rejecting Guardiola’s downplaying of City’s chances. “We don’t see ourselves as having a 99% chance either. We have a small advantage, and we must make the most of it. We need to play the same way we did in the first leg because it worked well.

“But we also have to acknowledge the challenges. We’re preparing as best as we can. We weren’t happy with what happened against Osasuna and Atlético—matches where we were disadvantaged, and I don’t understand why.

“In recent games, refereeing decisions have been questionable. The stats speak for themselves. In Europe, there’s less controversy. The Champions League has the best referees from each country, and the officiating quality is very high.”

While Ancelotti remains measured, Guardiola has suggested City’s chances of progression are slim. He downplayed the significance of their Newcastle victory, portraying it as an exception rather than a turning point.

“Of course, the win helps, but the margin for winning at the Bernabéu is tiny,” Guardiola said. “If you ask before the game, our chances of going through are around one percent. It’s minimal, but as long as we have a chance, we’ll fight.

“This season, the reality is we’ve been far off our best. We finished 22nd in the Champions League rankings. If we had played like we did today, we would have been higher. But overall, our performances and results have been poor.

“One good game doesn’t change our situation. But, of course, it’s better to go to Madrid after a win rather than a defeat. The chances are small, especially given the 3-2 result. Had it been 2-1, it would be different. But we have a chance, and we’ll take it.”