A Champions League supercomputer predicts the winner, giving Arsenal a higher chance than Real Madrid.
A Champions League supercomputer has analyzed each team’s chances, surprisingly ranking Real Madrid only fifth in the race for the trophy.
The last-16 stage begins on Tuesday night, featuring many of Europe’s top clubs. Defending champions Real Madrid eased past Manchester City in the knockout play-offs, and with Kylian Mbappe in their ranks, they pose a serious threat. However, they face tough competition from teams like Liverpool and Barcelona. Liverpool currently lead the Premier League and dominated the league phase, winning all but one match. Meanwhile, Barcelona appear to have regained their form.
Opta’s AI model simulated the knockout rounds 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcomes. Real Madrid were given just a 9.8% chance of winning, significantly lower than Liverpool’s 19.2%. This could be due to Real’s difficult last-16 draw against Atletico Madrid, who have impressed this season and sit above them in La Liga.
Liverpool, despite facing PSG in the last 16, are considered the favorites, with a 30.9% chance of reaching the final. Barcelona follow closely with a 14.8% chance of lifting the trophy. Inter Milan, last season’s finalists, have a 14% chance, while Arsenal have been surprisingly ranked fourth, ahead of Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, and PSG.
Champions League Supercomputer Predictions:
1. Liverpool – Final: 30.9%, Win: 19.2%
2. Barcelona – Final: 31.7%, Win: 14.8%
3. Inter Milan – Final: 29.3%, Win: 14%
4. Arsenal – Final: 20.5%, Win: 11.6%
5. Real Madrid – Final: 17.1%, Win: 9.8%
6. PSG – Final: 17.1%, Win: 9.5%
7. Bayer Leverkusen – Final: 12.6%, Win: 5.4%
8. Bayern Munich – Final: 12.7%, Win: 5.3%
9. Atletico Madrid – Final: 8.3%, Win: 4.2%
10. Benfica – Final: 4.3%, Win: 1.3%
Arsenal, despite struggles in attack and a dip in domestic form, have a relatively favorable last-16 draw. However, they will likely face either Real Madrid or Atletico in the quarter-finals.
In Germany, Bayer Leverkusen have been given a slightly higher chance of reaching the final than Bayern Munich. Xabi Alonso’s side has a 5.4% chance of winning compared to Bayern’s 5.3%.
Four teams—Aston Villa, PSV, Feyenoord, and Club Brugge—have been deemed highly unlikely to win, with less than a 1% probability. Other clubs like Benfica, Borussia Dortmund, and Lille also have minimal chances, while Atletico Madrid, despite their strong domestic form, are only given a 4.2% chance.
Inter Milan, benefiting from a favorable last-16 draw against Feyenoord, have the best chance (81.6%) of progressing to the quarter-finals. In contrast, Liverpool, who face PSG, only have a 58.3% chance of advancing.
